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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-22 13:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Beta was located near 28.8, -96.8 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-09-22 13:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221144 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...BETA EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND OVER TEXAS TODAY... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 96.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM ESE OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF PALACIOS TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sargent Texas to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by surface observations and NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 96.8 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). Beta is expected to stall inland over Texas today but will then begin to move slowly toward the east-northeast tonight. An east-northeast to northeast motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Beta is likely to begin weakening later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h) was recently reported at Victoria, Texas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within portions of the tropical storm warning area today. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today near the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-09-22 11:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 09:31:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-22 10:58:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:58:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 08:58:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-22 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 949 WTNT42 KNHC 220857 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 Beta's center has continued to move farther inland since making landfall on the southern end of the Matagorda Peninsula around 10 PM CDT last evening. There have not been any surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and an earlier ASCAT pass indicated that winds over the water had decreased to near 35 kt. That is Beta's estimated intensity at the moment, with the assumption that those winds are still occurring somewhere over water or within the deep convection near the center. Beta has been moving northwestward, or 315/3 kt. Steering currents around the storm are now collapsing, and Beta is expected to meander during the next 12-24 hours. By this time tomorrow, however, a mid-level trough over west Texas is forecast to begin moving eastward and should scoop Beta up, causing the storm to move toward the east-northeast near or just inland of the upper Texas coast through 36 hours. After that time, Beta is expected to turn northeastward, moving farther inland across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. Because Beta has moved a little farther inland than expected, much of the model trackers have shifted northward, and now only the UKMET and its ensemble mean show Beta's center re-emerging over the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward accordingly and generally lies between the HCCA aid and the TVCN multi-model consensus. Now that Beta's center may not move back out over the Gulf, the intensity guidance indicates that the cyclone will gradually weaken during the next few days. However, since a part of the circulation will remain over water and the system could still produce deep convection, the NHC forecast shows Beta maintaining tropical storm status for another 12 hours or so (a scenario which is above all of the guidance). Beta should weaken to a tropical depression in about 24 hours, and it is expected to become a remnant low in 2-3 days when vertical shear is expected to be well over 30 kt. Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will continue into the ArkLaTex region and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. Storm surge flooding will continue throughout the morning, around the times of high tide along portions of the Texas coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should continue to follow advice of local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue near portions of the Texas coast within the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 29.1N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 29.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 32.1N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 33.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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