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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-09-09 19:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091752 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...STRENGTHENING OLAF EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 108.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located by visible satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 108.6 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula this evening and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before the eyewall of Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and evening. Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or this evening. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the next hour or so, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Hurricane Olaf Graphics
2021-09-09 16:51:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 14:51:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 14:51:50 GMT
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-09 16:51:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091451 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Recent microwave imagery shows that Olaf's structure has improved considerably during the past 6 hours, and it now has well-defined eye. The eye is also now evident in radar imagery from Cabo San Lucas. Although an eye is not yet evident in infrared or visible imagery, satellite intensity estimates had increased and supported an intensity of 60-65 kt at 1200 UTC. Given the continued impressive satellite appearance since then, the estimated intensity is 65 kt for this advisory, making Olaf a hurricane. Olaf has a microwave ring structure that is known to indicate intensification in the short term. The wind shear that previously affected the hurricane seems to have lessened and the environment should also support further strengthening today. The hurricane is therefore forecast to quickly intensify during the next 12 h or so while it approaches the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. After that, interaction with land and cold sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken over the weekend. Olaf is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 h as it moves farther away from land. The NHC intensity forecast is above the previous advisory, and is above most of the guidance through 24 h. Beyond that, there have been only slight adjustments to the official intensity forecast, which is based on the multi- model consensus. The track forecast has shifted closer to the southern Baja California peninsula. In line with the intensity forecast, the NHC forecast now slightly favors the stronger GFS and regional hurricane models, compared to the weaker ECMWF, but is still near the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. Olaf is moving north-northeast but should turn northwestward later today, steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the western United States. The models with a stronger hurricane show Olaf turning slightly slower, and bring the center very near or even over Baja California Sur tonight. As Olaf weakens it should begin to be steered by lower-level flow, which will cause it to eventually turn westward and then southwestward as it moves away from land early next week. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to pass very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday, and hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, and preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.2N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.2N 109.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.3N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.1N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 23.8N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 12/1200Z 23.2N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-09 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY TODAY... ...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... As of 9:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 21.2, -108.3 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 8
2021-09-09 16:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 091450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF BECOMES A HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY TODAY... ...PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 108.3W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely before Olaf nears the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula tonight. Weakening is likely on Friday and through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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