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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-09-09 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 966 WTPZ25 KNHC 090853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)

2021-09-09 07:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... As of 12:00 AM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 20.3, -108.2 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 6A

2021-09-09 07:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090556 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 108.2W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Cabo San Lucas to Todos Santos A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 108.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northwest to north-northwest motion along with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Friday night, followed by a turn toward the west on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move just to the southwest of southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf could be near hurricane strength by this evening or tonight. The storm is expected to begin weakening on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in Baja California Sur tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area later this afternoon or evening and will spread northward within the warning area tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Olaf is expected to generate swells that will affect portions of the coasts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa later today, spreading northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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