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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-09-10 07:51:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100551 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 1200 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OLAF CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 110.2W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land tonight or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is expected today as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area and will continue to spread northward today. Tropical storm conditions are also occuring over portions of Baja California Sur and will spread northward within the tropical storm warning area today. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Olaf Update Statement
2021-09-10 05:21:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 920 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ65 KNHC 100321 TCUEP5 Hurricane Olaf Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 920 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF MAKES LANDFALL VERY NEAR SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO... Radar data from the Mexican Meteorological Service site at Los Cabos and surface pressure data from the region indicate that Olaf made landfall very near San Jose del Cabo, Baja California Sur, at around 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC). Maximum sustained winds were estimated to be near 100 mph (155 km/h). SUMMARY OF 920 PM MDT...0320 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 109.6W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-10 05:21:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF MAKES LANDFALL VERY NEAR SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO... As of 9:20 PM MDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Olaf was located near 23.1, -109.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Olaf Graphics
2021-09-10 04:54:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 02:54:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 02:54:58 GMT
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Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 482 WTPZ45 KNHC 100248 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore. The eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has increased to 90 kt. Based on this and an increase in the organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The initial motion is 325/10. Olaf should continue moving northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by low-level northeasterly flow. The forecast guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf interacts with the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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