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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-22 07:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND... As of 2:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Jose was located near 39.6, -68.5 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 67A
2017-09-22 07:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220539 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 67A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.6N 68.5W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose was located near latitude 39.6 North, longitude 68.5 West. Jose is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Little motion is expected for the next 48 hours, and Jose is forecast to meander well offshore of the coast of southeastern New England during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next two days. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site on Block Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches across Cape Cod and the offshore islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket bringing storm total accumulations towards 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Graphics
2017-09-22 04:57:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 02:57:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 03:23:06 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 67
2017-09-22 04:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220250 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well to the west and northwest of the center. Based on this, Jose has been declared post-tropical. Surface observations from extreme southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical storm warnings in those locations remain in place. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided. The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW quadrant. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days. Most of the global models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h. Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift slowly westward. Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually dissipates around day 4. The NHC forecast remains close to the various track consensus aids. Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii were extended in the NW and NE quadrants. However this wind appears to be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 39.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 39.3N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0000Z 39.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 38.8N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 67
2017-09-22 04:47:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 220246 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 67 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0300 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BOSTON MA 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 7 6(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW LONDON CT 34 5 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 7 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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