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Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Forecast Discussion Number 32
2017-09-19 16:33:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191433 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Otis has been devoid of deep convection for about 10 hours, and the cyclone only consists of a compact swirl of low-level clouds. Therefore, Otis is now classified as a remnant low, and this is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center. ASCAT data from last night indicated that maximum winds were near 35 kt. Assuming some spin down since that time due to the loss of deep convection, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt. Continued weakening due to cool SSTs and dry air is expected, and Otis is expected to dissipate in a day or so. The remnant low has turned to the west in the low-level trade wind flow. A west to west-southwest motion is expected until the system dissipates. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.0N 128.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2017-09-19 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 191432 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OTIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OTIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis (EP5/EP152017)
2017-09-19 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OTIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 the center of Otis was located near 19.0, -128.6 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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ep5ep152017
Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Public Advisory Number 32
2017-09-19 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 191432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...OTIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 128.6W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 128.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Otis is likely to dissipate within 36 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Otis. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Forecast Advisory Number 32
2017-09-19 16:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191431 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 128.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 128.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 128.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OTIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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