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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Public Advisory Number 22
2017-08-23 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 232032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...KENNETH BECOMES POST-TROPICAL, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 135.6W ABOUT 1625 MI...2615 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 135.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 22
2017-08-23 22:32:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232032 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 2100 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 135.6W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 135.6W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 135.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.4N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.1N 136.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.7N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 31.2N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 135.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Graphics
2017-08-17 22:43:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 20:43:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2017 21:25:49 GMT
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posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Forecast Discussion Number 20
2017-08-17 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 172039 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082017 500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017 Gert is now post-tropical. The circulation has become quite elongated, and the remaining deep convection appears to be primarily associated with frontal boundaries. A pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes from around 1300 and 1400 UTC indicated that Gert was weaker than previously estimated. Based on the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The initial wind radii were also adjusted based on the ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate is a brisk 060/34 kt. Gert should move quickly northeastward for the next 12 to 24 h while gradually spinning down. After that time, it should slow down and turn more toward the north while merging with or being absorbed by another extratropical low. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast office for more information. This is the last NHC advisory on Gert. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 44.8N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0600Z 47.8N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 18/1800Z 50.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 52.5N 35.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2017-08-17 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 172038 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082017 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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