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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-08-01 10:39:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010838 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The depression has remained poorly organized for more than 24 hours and has produced a very limited amount of convection during that time. As a result of the lack of organized deep convection over the past day, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and it has degenerated into a remnant low. In addition, the original low-level swirl that was tracked over the past day or so appears to have been absorbed within the envelope of the broader low pressure area. The system's initial intensity is maintained at 25 kt, but this could be generous. The depression has been plagued by shear and dry air entrainment, and those conditions are expected to persist for at least the next couple of days. If the system is able to survive past 72 hours, there is some chance of redevelopment when the shear decreases later in the period. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the potential interaction with Hurricane Hilda located to the cyclone's northeast, the official forecast calls for the system to remain a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on this system unless regeneration occurs. The cyclone has been nearly stationary overnight, but it is forecast to begin a slow westward to west-northwestward motion later today, and that motion should continue for the next few days. After that time, possible interaction with Hilda increases the track forecast uncertainty, but since the majority of the dynamical models keep the low on a west-northwestward heading, so does the NHC forecast. Future information on the remnant low can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Information on potential regeneration will be available in the Tropical Weather Outlook as needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.4N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Jul 31 the center of Nine-E was located near 11.4, -127.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010838 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 127.5W ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 127.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is stationary. A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system unless regeneration occurs. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010838 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-01 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 665 WTPZ24 KNHC 010837 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.5W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.1N 134.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.5N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 127.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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