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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39

2021-07-09 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 092042 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PTX BASQUES 34 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) EDDY POINT NS 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 2 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 34 67 X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MONCTON NB 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MONCTON NB 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) EASTPORT ME 34 36 X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BAR HARBOR ME 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 39

2021-07-09 22:38:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 092038 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC FRI JUL 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 270SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 69.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 46.2N 64.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 50.3N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 54.7N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.0N 69.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-09 19:42:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Jul 9 the center of Elsa was located near 42.0, -71.0 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Public Advisory Number 38A

2021-07-09 19:42:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 400 WTNT35 KNHC 091742 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 38A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.0N 71.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of Long Island and the coast of New England west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80 km/h). A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the Nantucket Airport. NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid- afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky

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