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Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2016-10-28 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280832 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number speed wind seymour

 

Post-Tropical Cyclone SEYMOUR Forecast Advisory Number 21

2016-10-28 10:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280831 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 28 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.8N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 57

2016-10-18 10:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180856 TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016 Nicole is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. The circulation is becoming elongated with the remaining deep convection in a band well to the east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a combination of satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to complete extratropical transition in the next 12 hours, the it should continue as a vigorous extratropical storm through 36 hours before it is absorbed by another extratropical low. The initial motion is 030/27. The cyclone should continue quickly north-northeastward on the east side on a deep layer trough over the Labrador Sea until the cyclone dissipates. The main hazard associated with the post-tropical cyclone will continue to be the large area of high seas. Swells from the system will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple of days. This is the last advisory on Nicole issued by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 47.1N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/1800Z 51.7N 36.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0600Z 57.0N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z 62.0N 33.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Graphics

2016-10-18 10:55:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 18 Oct 2016 08:55:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 18 Oct 2016 08:54:35 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 57

2016-10-18 10:55:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 180855 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 57 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC TUE OCT 18 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind nicole

 

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