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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-08-05 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 052037 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112017 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017 The center of the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for most of the day. A few convective bursts located well to the west and northwest of the center have been observed periodically during the afternoon, but they are probably not contributing to the maintenance of the circulation, and do not meet the criteria of organized deep convection for a tropical cyclone. On that basis, the cyclone has been declared a remnant low and this is the last advisory. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. A pair of ASCAT passes around 1636 and 1722 UTC showed max winds of about 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been set to that value. The 1722 ASCAT-A pass also indicated that the circulation may already be opening into a trough. The remnants should continue to gradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating entirely within about 36 hours, if not sooner, as shown by the ECMWF, GFS, and SHIPS models. The post-tropical cyclone has continued to move a little right of the forecast track, perhaps due to the lack of deep convection that could have forced it farther west with the mid- to upper-level flow. Instead, it should continue to be steered by the weak low-level flow, generally north-northwestward or northwestward, until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 111.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 20.9N 112.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Graphics
2017-08-02 04:34:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2017 02:34:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2017 03:24:36 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-08-02 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 020232 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 The center of Emily has become exposed again tonight, with satellite images showing the skeletal circulation well to the west of any distant convection. The shallow cyclone hasn't really produced any organized deep convection in about 24 hours, with only small puffs that quickly fade out due to dry air and shear. In addition, the cyclone is embedded within a frontal zone, and no analysis shows Emily with a warm core. Given these considerations, Emily has lost the requisite characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and is being declared post-tropical. Thus, this is the last advisory on Emily. The cyclone has taken a turn to the north-northeast but should resume a northeast motion overnight ahead of a deep-layer trough. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the left based on the initial position only, with the models in good agreement on the general northeast course. Emily should gradually weaken due to increasing shear and dry air aloft, and acquire more extratropical characteristics on Wednesday. Dissipation of the low is forecast within 3 days as it opens up into a trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 30.9N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 02/1200Z 32.3N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 03/0000Z 33.9N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 03/1200Z 35.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 04/0000Z 36.0N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily (AT1/AL062017)
2017-08-02 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EMILY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 the center of Emily was located near 30.9, -78.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Public Advisory Number 9
2017-08-02 04:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...EMILY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 78.0W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Emily was located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 78.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster motion toward the northeast is forecast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone should weaken gradually over the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Blake
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