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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Graphics
2017-07-12 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2017 20:44:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Jul 2017 21:23:40 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-12 22:41:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122040 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 Eugene has succumbed to the effects of the cool, dry airmass in which it has become embedded. Organized deep convection dissipated earlier today and is unlikely to resume due to the system moving over progressively colder waters west of Baja California. Thus Eugene has become a post-tropical cyclone. An 1814Z ASCAT scatterometer pass measured maximum winds of about 30 kt. These winds will gradually subside and by day 3 or 4 Eugene's circulation is likely to open up into a trough. Eugene's remnant low is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico. This motion should continue for the next couple of days, then slow with a turn toward the west-northwest by day 3. The track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. Swells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California will be diminishing on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 24.1N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/0600Z 24.9N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z 25.9N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 26.8N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 27.7N 126.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-07-12 22:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122039 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052017 2100 UTC WED JUL 12 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene (EP5/EP052017)
2017-07-12 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...EUGENE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 the center of Eugene was located near 24.1, -122.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Public Advisory Number 21
2017-07-12 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 122039 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017 200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017 ...EUGENE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 122.5W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 122.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast and the remnant low of Eugene is expected to dissipate in two to three days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west coast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California will be diminishing on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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