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Post-Tropical Cyclone KATE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2015-11-12 09:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 000 WTNT22 KNHC 120846 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122015 0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 50.8W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 180SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 280SE 480SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 50.8W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 51.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 41.8N 48.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 34 KT...300NE 440SE 120SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 42.2N 45.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...380NE 440SE 150SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 43.3N 41.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 180SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 46.3N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...480NE 480SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...240NE 360SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 50.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Graphics
2015-10-27 16:48:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:48:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2015 15:03:47 GMT
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cyclone
olaf
posttropical
Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 51
2015-10-27 15:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid of deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued at this time. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to gale force. With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic forcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate in a few days. The post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or 060/9 kt. Global models show a low-level ridge building to the north of the system over the next couple of days. This should cause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow. The official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not quite as fast as the dynamical model consensus. For additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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cyclone
Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2015-10-27 15:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271434 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 1500 UTC TUE OCT 27 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone OLAF (EP4/EP192015)
2015-10-27 15:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Oct 27 the center of OLAF was located near 26.7, -135.1 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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cyclone
olaf
ep4ep192015
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