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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Public Advisory Number 39
2020-09-16 16:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161440 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...PAULETTE BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.3N 45.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette was located near latitude 43.3 North, longitude 45.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Thursday. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn toward the southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 39
2020-09-16 16:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 161439 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT.......160NE 240SE 200SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 660SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 30SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 20SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.3N 45.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PAULETTE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Graphics
2020-09-05 22:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 20:32:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2020 20:32:42 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-05 22:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 808 WTNT45 KNHC 052031 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of the center. During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression, but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC. The initial intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center. The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred miles east of a cold front. The models suggest that the remnants of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition. Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 38.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 40.2N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 43.3N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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omar
Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-05 22:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 052030 PWSAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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