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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-08-16 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162032 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 5 10(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-16 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 162032 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 134.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 134.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 134.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.7N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.7N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.2N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 12.6N 140.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 134.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Graphics
2020-08-16 10:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:48:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:31:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-16 10:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160847 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 Shortwave infrared satellite imagery and earlier ASCAT data indicate that Kyle's circulation has become very elongated, and the center has become ill defined. Model analyses and satellite imagery also suggest that the low is now attached to a prominent warm/stationary front to its east and a weaker trailing cold front to its southwest. Therefore, Kyle has become an extratropical low, and its maximum winds are estimated to be 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Global models indicate that Kyle's winds should continue to decrease over the next couple of days, with the system dissipating or becoming absorbed by another area of low pressure in about 48 hours. The initial motion is eastward, or 080/17 kt. Since Kyle is embedded in zonal mid-latitude flow, this general heading and speed are expected to continue during the next day or two until the cyclone dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 40.0N 58.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 16/1800Z 40.4N 55.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0600Z 40.4N 51.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1800Z 39.9N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-16 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KYLE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 16 the center of Kyle was located near 40.0, -58.9 with movement E at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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