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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Graphics
2020-07-13 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 02:41:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 02:41:26 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-07-13 04:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 130239 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-07-13 04:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130239 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina has lacked deep convection for more than 12 hours and is now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The system has therefore become a remnant low and this is the last NHC advisory. The estimated intensity is 30 kt, assuming some spin down has occurred since the last advisory. Cristina is moving westward near 10 kt, and low-level easterly flow should steer the remnant low on this general heading for the next few days. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures of about 23 deg C that will prevent the redevelopment of organized convection. Cristina should continue to gradually spin down during the next 2-3 days until it opens into a trough and dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-13 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 the center of Cristina was located near 20.7, -126.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Public Advisory Number 26
2020-07-13 04:39:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130239 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 ...CRISTINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 126.5W ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 126.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two or three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated and the remnant low will likely dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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