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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-06-24 16:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241433 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 The center of Dolly has been exposed since last night, and any remaining convection has been displaced well to the system's south. The circulation is now traversing over waters below 20 degrees C, and therefore is not anticipated that any deep convection will return to the post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an overnight ASCAT overpass. The low is forecast to gradually spin down through tonight and will likely open to a surface trough sometime on Thursday as it continues to move northeastward at around 15 kt. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 42.5N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 25/0000Z 44.1N 55.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 45.9N 51.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-06-24 16:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 241432 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly (AT4/AL042020)
2020-06-24 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DOLLY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Jun 24 the center of Dolly was located near 42.5, -57.8 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Public Advisory Number 9
2020-06-24 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241432 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 AM AST Wed Jun 24 2020 ...DOLLY BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.5N 57.8W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly was located near latitude 42.5 North, longitude 57.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly is expected to dissipate by Thursday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolly Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-06-24 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 241432 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 57.8W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 100SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 57.8W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.0N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.1N 55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 45.9N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.5N 57.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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