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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-21 19:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA... As of 12:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 26.1, -110.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 17A
2019-09-21 19:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211734 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO CHECK LORENA... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 110.8W ABOUT 128 MI...205 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 110.8 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move across the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. An Air Force reconnaissance plane will check Lorena shortly. Lorena is a small cyclone and the hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-21 19:34:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 17:34:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:44:43 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-21 17:03:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:03:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 15:44:43 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-09-21 17:00:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 211459 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 44 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) LORETO 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P PENASCO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) HERMOSILLO 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BAHIA KINO 34 X 53(53) 4(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) BAHIA KINO 50 X 16(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BAHIA KINO 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 12 60(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GUAYMAS 50 1 22(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GUAYMAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HUATABAMPO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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