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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 18
2019-09-21 22:48:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 212047 CCA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CORRECTED TO ADD STATUS OF REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 111.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 111.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 111.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-21 22:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212046 CCA TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Corrected to add status of remnant low at 36 hours The inner core of Lorena did not survive its path across the high terrain of the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone and found that Lorena has weakened significantly. The central pressure rose to 1002 mb, and the peak winds are only 45 kt. These winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of the center. The cloud pattern has also deteriorated significantly since yesterday. Although the ocean is quite warm in the Gulf of California, the shear is rapidly increasing, and this factor should continue to weaken the already battered storm. However, the NHC forecast calls for Lorena to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico within the tropical storm warning area in about 18 hours or so as a tropical storm. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, but heavy rains should continue for another day or so. Lorena is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt, steered by the flow around the western periphery of a subtropical high. This flow pattern will persist, and Lorena is anticipated to continue on this general track for the next day or two until dissipation over the Sonoran Desert. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible, this weekend in parts of northwestern mainland Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds over portions of the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 26.7N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.2N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 30.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 32.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-21 22:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 353 FOPZ15 KNHC 212038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HERMOSILLO 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 14 18(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BAHIA KINO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-21 22:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 26.7, -111.1 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 18
2019-09-21 22:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 352 WTPZ35 KNHC 212038 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 111.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Baja California peninsula and the Hurricane Watch for mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north and east of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by the crew of the Air Force plane was 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf or California today and reach the tropical storm warning area by later tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday night: Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches. East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional 1 to 3 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions of the western coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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