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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 16
2019-09-21 10:57:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210857 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 110.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM N OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning on Baja California Sur from Puerto Cortes to Los Barriles. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the mainland from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino and a Tropical Storm Watch from Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.3 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 16
2019-09-21 10:57:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210857 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO CORTES TO LOS BARRILES. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE MAINLAND FROM HUATABAMPITO TO BAHIA KINO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA ROSALIA TO LOS BARRILES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LOS BARRILES TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO * MAINLAND MEXICO NORTH OF BAHIA KINO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE THROUGH TONIGHT. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.3W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 15A
2019-09-21 07:57:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 210557 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1200 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NEAR LA VENTANA... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 110.1W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located over land near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 110.1 West. Lorena is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently reported sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (139 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). The same automated station in La Ventana reported a minimum pressure of 991 mb (29.96 in). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-21 07:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 05:57:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:44:33 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-21 06:37:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NEAR LA VENTANA... As of 12:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 24.0, -110.1 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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