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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)
2019-09-21 13:42:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 6:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 25.0, -110.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 16A
2019-09-21 13:42:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211141 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA HUGGING THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 110.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued all the watches and warnings for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Los Barriles A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico north of Bahia Kino to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case through today. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was estimated near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 110.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general motion toward the north-northwest is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move along the east coast of Baja California Sur or over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. After that time, Lorena is forecast to weaken. Lorena is a small cyclone and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to spread northward across the hurricane warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Lorena Graphics
2019-09-21 10:59:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:59:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 09:44:35 GMT
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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-21 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210857 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the warm waters of the Gulf of California. Around the time Lorena made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of 986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane. The satellite appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary images. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt based on the TAFB Dvorak classification. An ASCAT-C pass confirmed that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center. Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have not had a good handle on its future track. The models this cycle have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland Mexico tonight or Sunday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. If this model trend continues, additional shifts to the right might be needed. Based on this change, the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of northwestern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and dissipation is likely to occur on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high side of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. It could also bring hurricane conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Lorena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-21 10:57:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 210857 PWSEP5 HURRICANE LORENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P ABREOJOS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LA PAZ 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LORETO 34 23 31(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LORETO 50 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) HERMOSILLO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 13(13) 41(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) BAHIA KINO 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BAHIA KINO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 45(45) 17(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GUAYMAS 50 X 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GUAYMAS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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