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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 17

2019-09-21 17:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211459 TCDEP5 Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide a better assessment of Lorena's winds. Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the corrected consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and early next week. 2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Summary for Hurricane Lorena (EP5/EP152019)

2019-09-21 16:59:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 the center of Lorena was located near 25.6, -110.6 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 17

2019-09-21 16:59:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211459 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 ...HURRICANE LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 110.6W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF LORETO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warnings for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula and replaced it with a Tropical Storm Warning from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. The government of Mexico also adjusted the watches and warnings for mainland Mexico and a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Bahia San Juan Bautista to San Evaristo. * Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 110.6 West. Lorena is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general motion toward the north is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to move over the Gulf of California today, then approach the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico tonight and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening is forecast before the center reaches the coast of mainland Mexico early Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward across the Gulf or California today. Hurricane conditions are possible and tropical storm conditions are expected within the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning areas by tonight. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Baja California Sur...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts around 8 inches. Sonora...3 to 6 inches. Northwest Sinaloa...2 to 4 inches. This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Lorena Forecast Advisory Number 17

2019-09-21 16:57:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211457 TCMEP5 HURRICANE LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ALSO ADJUSTED THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MAINLAND MEXICO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA TO SAN EVARISTO. * NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ON THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 110.6W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 110.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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