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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics
2020-09-13 04:39:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 02:39:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 03:52:32 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-13 04:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130238 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 The last few visible satellite images indicated convection growing closer to the center of a low pressure area that NHC has been tracking for the past few days. Since the low was already well-defined this afternoon, the development of organized deep convection means that a tropical depression has formed. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB/SAB fixes and earlier ASCAT data. The depression is embedded within a moderate easterly wind-shear environment, partially related to its position in the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough structure. Global model guidance is in reasonable agreement on the large-scale circulation becoming focused on the new tropical cyclone and a slight relaxation of the shear during the next couple of days. This change should lead to gradual intensification, and the new forecast is between the model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids. Beyond 2-3 days, decreasing SSTs and increasing dry air entrainment should promote weakening, and that is reflected below. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain northwestward or 315/08 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward, causing the cyclone to move west-northwestward for a few days after the weekend. A westward turn is forecast at long range due to the shallow cyclone feeling the low-level ridge. One big uncertainty with this forecast is how it interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E. For now, it is assumed that only a slight slow down occurs as the depression becomes the dominant circulation in the area, and the forecast is more consistent with the GFS- or UKMET-based guidance. However, a slower ECMWF-like solution is also possible, but is being given less weight at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162020)
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 16.7, -112.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130236 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 112.9W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwest or northwest motion is expected for the next few days Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Sunday, and further gradual strengthening is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-13 04:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 130236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.9W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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