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Tropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-08-09 16:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 419 FONT14 KNHC 091433 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-08-09 16:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 217 WTNT24 KNHC 091432 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 43.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 43.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 46.2N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 43.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Debby Graphics
2018-08-09 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 08:37:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 09:26:00 GMT
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debby
Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-08-09 10:37:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 444 WTNT44 KNHC 090837 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 Debby is still hanging on to tropical storm status with a new burst of deep convection having recently developed just south of the low-level center. However, the cyclone's overall cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly since the previous advisory, and there are no longer any convective bands in the region where earlier 40-plus-kt ASCAT winds were observed. As a result, the initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 40 kt, which is consistent with an average of consensus current T-number and current intensity estimates of T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, from both TAFB and SAB. Debby has begun to accelerate northeastward, and the motion estimate is now 055/15 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected as Debby gets caught up in the high-latitude westerlies ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough. The small cyclone is forecast to open up into a surface trough by 24 h or so due to Debby moving faster than 20 kt and steady weakening of the circulation over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and basically lies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. Although Debby has been and is forecast to continue straddling a tight SST gradient with 26+ deg C water just to the southeast and south of the center, the ingestion of drier and more stable air from the north is expected to induce gradual weakening until dissipation or absorption occurs in about 24 h. Debby could briefly become extratropical in about 18 h, followed by dissipation shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 43.6N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 45.4N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-08-09 10:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 377 FONT14 KNHC 090836 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART