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Tropical Storm Debby Graphics
2018-08-08 10:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 08:34:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Aug 2018 08:34:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-08 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 588 WTNT44 KNHC 080834 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 Over the past several hours, deep convection with cloud tops of -55 to -60 deg C has developed in the southeastern semicircle, with some of the convective tops covering the previously exposed low-level circulation center. In addition, outer banding features have dissipated, and an elongated upper-level anticyclone has developed over the cyclone. These convective- and synoptic-scale features indicate that Debby has made the transition from a subtropical to a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on a blend of UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON intensity estimates of 39 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Furthermore, the 34-kt wind radii and radius of maximum winds (RMW) were decreased significantly on this advisory based on ASCAT wind data. The initial motion estimate is now 015/08 kt. Debby has made the forecast turn toward the north-northeast, and a further turn toward the northeast is expected later today as the cyclone moves around the northwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge and ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the track consensus models HCCA and FSSE. Debby will be moving along a tight sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient for the next 24-36 hours or so, with the northwestern half the circulation being over sub-25C SSTs and the southeastern semicircle being over warmer waters where convection could continue to develop. Given the relatively low vertical wind shear regime that the cyclone will be moving through, along with the possibility of deep convection persisting near the center, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength today, followed by only slight weakening tonight and early Thursday. By Thursday night or early Friday, SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to decrease to near 20 deg C and the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt, an unfavorable combination that should result in Debby dissipating over the far north Atlantic by 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 40.8N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 41.8N 48.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 43.2N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 44.5N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-08-08 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 271 FONT14 KNHC 080833 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Debby (AT4/AL042018)
2018-08-08 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEBBY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 8 the center of Debby was located near 40.8, -48.8 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 4
2018-08-08 10:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 109 WTNT34 KNHC 080833 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018 ...DEBBY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.8N 48.8W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 48.8 West. Debby is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is forecast by this afternoon, and that motion should continue into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change is strength is forecast today, with slow weakening expected to begin late tonight or on Thursday. Debby is forecast to dissipate over the far northern Atlantic by Thursday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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