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Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 393 FONT14 KNHC 092036 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042018 2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Debby Graphics
2018-08-09 16:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 14:38:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 15:25:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Debby Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-08-09 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 214 WTNT44 KNHC 091434 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 Debby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just south of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this morning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream, and this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to maintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass around 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still near 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of low pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically an indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics. No significant changes have been made to the track or intensity forecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly northeastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a fast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now crossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is expected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows Debby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very possible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed increases. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 44.5N 43.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 46.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Debby (AT4/AL042018)
2018-08-09 16:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEBBY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 9 the center of Debby was located near 44.5, -43.1 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Debby Public Advisory Number 9
2018-08-09 16:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 431 WTNT34 KNHC 091433 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018 ...DEBBY EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.5N 43.1W ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was located near latitude 44.5 North, longitude 43.1 West. Debby is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is expected to accelerate northeastward through the day today. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Debby will likely dissipate later today or tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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