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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-08-05 04:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050246 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Satellite and radar data, along with surface observations, indicate that Isaias has lost its tropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with a weak baroclinic zone over New England and southeastern Canada. Thus, it is being designated a post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based mainly on a recent observation at the Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire, and these winds are occurring over the Gulf of Maine well to the southeast of the center. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken further, with winds dropping below 35 kt early tomorrow. After that, the system is forecast to be absorbed into a large baroclinic low over southeastern Canada between 36-48 h. The initial motion remains north-northeastward or 020/33 kt. A continued general north-northeastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed by the larger low. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in the center of the tightly-clustered track guidance models. While Isaias is now post-tropical, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories until the Tropical Storm Warning can be discontinued along the coast of the United States. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power outages will continue over portions of New England for a few more hours. 2. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood stage Wednesday. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. 3. The threat of tornadoes will continue over portions of Maine for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 45.3N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-08-05 04:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 050246 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORTLAND ME 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... As of 11:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 the center of Isaias was located near 45.3, -72.5 with movement NNE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 050245 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0300 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS TO STONINGTON MAINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 72.5W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.3N 72.5W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 49.1N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 52.6N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 54.0N 68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.3N 72.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 32
2020-08-05 04:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 ...ISAIAS BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.3N 72.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF MONTREAL QUEBEC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Merrimack River, Massachusetts. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Merrimack River Massachusetts to Stonington Maine A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias was located near latitude 45.3 North, longitude 72.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a decrease in forward speed through Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Continued weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop below tropical-storm force during the next few hours. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over southeastern Canada Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the southeast of the the center. The NOAA automated station at Isle of Shoals, New Hampshire recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h) at an elevation of 63 ft (19 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are expected for a few more hours in the tropical storm warning area in southern New England. These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages. Gale-force winds are possible over portions of southeastern Quebec for a few more hours. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and near the track of Isaias across Southern Quebec. Additional rainfall of up to an inch is possible across western and northern Maine overnight. As the rainfall exits the United States, scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers falling below flood stage Wednesday. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across central and eastern Maine for the next several hours. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will affect the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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