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Tropical Storm Isaias Graphics
2020-08-05 01:57:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 23:57:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Aug 2020 21:24:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 31A
2020-08-05 01:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 042350 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.6N 73.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNW OF RUTLAND VERMONT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Stonington Maine * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 43.6 North, longitude 73.0 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada tonight. Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected this evening, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. During the past few hours, there have been numerous reports of wind gusts of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) across portions of Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and southeastern New Hampshire. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected tonight in the tropical storm warning area in southern New England. These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages. Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and near the track of Isaias across northeast New York, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and Southern Quebec. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias could result in flash flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through tonight. Scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing or forecast across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New England through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 31
2020-08-04 23:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 042133 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 31...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 Corrected Watches and Warnings summary. ...ISAIAS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.7N 74.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM W OF ALBANY NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sandy Point, New Jersey, including all of the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, and Delaware Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning has also been discontinued north of Stonington, Maine. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Point New Jersey to Stonington Maine * Long Island and Long Island Sound * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 42.7 North, longitude 74.2 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move farther inland over eastern New York and Vermont this afternoon and evening, and over southern Canada tonight. Data from Doppler weather radars along with surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected this afternoon and evening, followed by a faster rate of weakening tonight. Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. During the past hour, a NOAA NOS observing site at Sandy Hook, New Jersey, reported a sustained wind 41 mph (67 km/h) and a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h). Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph (80 km/h) have also been reported at multiple sites in southeastern New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts during the past hour. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sandy Hook NJ to Martha's Vineyard MA including Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-2 ft WIND: Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in eastern New York, Long Island, and southern New England, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds could cause significant tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England by late afternoon, and reach northern New England tonight. Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Eastern New York into Vermont: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, New Hampshire and western Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Southern Quebec: 1 to 3 inches. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible across southern New England late this afternoon. A risk for tornadoes may continue and spread across parts of northern New England through this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-04 23:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 042132 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 CORRECTED WATCHES AND WARNINGS SUMMARY CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SANDY POINT...NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND DELAWARE BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF STONINGTON...MAINE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY POINT NEW JERSEY TO STONINGTON MAINE * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 74.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 75.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 190SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 74.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-08-04 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042057 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 NOAA Doppler radar data from Islip, New York (KOKX), indicated 70-kt winds just off the surface south of Long Island earlier this afternoon, along with buoy reports from New York Harbor Inlet (44065) that supported lowering the intensity to 55 kt, so that value is used for this advisory. The motion remains north-northeastward or 020/35 kt. Isaias will continue moving north-northeastward through tonight, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 12 hours or, the cyclone is expected to interact with a larger extratropical over southeastern Canada and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone near western Maine. By 24 hours, Isaias is expected to transition to an extratropical low, and dissipate or become absorbed by the aforementioned larger extratropical low. The new NHC track forecast is just an extension of the previous advisory, and lies very close to the tightly clustered consensus track models. Isaias will continue to gradually spin down and lose its tropical characteristics. The precipitation has decreased in size and also has become more stratiform in appearance, which are indications that the cyclone is gradually weakening. This downward trend should continue until Isais becomes an extratropical low in 12-24 hours. There also remains a risk of tornadoes across portions of New England this afternoon and evening Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds that could cause tree damage and power outages will continue to spread across New England tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in the Northeast will also be susceptible to minor and possible moderate river flooding. 3. The threat of tornadoes will spread into New England this afternoon and evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 42.7N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 46.3N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 50.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/0600Z 53.3N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/1800Z 54.1N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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