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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-08-04 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 040849 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC TUE AUG 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA SOUTH OF SURF CITY. THE STORM SURGE WATCH SOUTH OF SURF CITY HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO EASTPORT MAINE * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY * TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER * DELAWARE BAY * LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD...NANTUCKET...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 77.5W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 77.5W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 78.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 40.3N 75.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 140SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 45.8N 72.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.3N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.2N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 77.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-04 09:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ISAIAS NEARING SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 the center of Isaias was located near 36.3, -77.5 with movement NNE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Update Statement
2020-08-04 08:57:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 705 WTNT64 KNHC 040656 TCUAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 300 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 ...ISAIAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... A weather station in Pamlico Sound recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h). The hurricane warnings for the coast of southern North Carolina will remain in effect until tropical storm conditions diminish in a couple of hours. SUMMARY OF 300 AM EDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 78.0W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF GREENVILLE NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Berg/Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-04 08:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAIAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE THREAT OF TORNADOES BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... As of 3:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 the center of Isaias was located near 35.5, -78.0 with movement NNE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 28A
2020-08-04 07:54:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 040553 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 04 2020 ...CENTER OF ISAIAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 78.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF GREENVILLE NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings south of Little River Inlet South Carolina have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Little River Inlet South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City North Carolina to Eastport Maine * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay * Tidal Potomac River * Delaware Bay * Long Island and Long Island Sound * Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 78.1 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by an increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will continue to move across eastern North Carolina early this morning. The center will move into southeastern Virginia around daybreak, near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states today, and continue across the northeastern United States tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Only gradual weakening is anticipated while Isaias moves north-northeastward near the mid-Atlantic coast today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently reported near Bogue, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Little River Inlet SC to Ocracoke Inlet NC...2-4 ft Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3-5 ft North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay, Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the hurricane warning area for another hour or two. Widespread tropical-storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay region, later today, with wind gusts to hurricane force possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England this afternoon and northern New England tonight and early Wednesday. Gale-force winds are expected to spread into southeastern Quebec tonight and Wednesday. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along and near the track of Isaias: Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals 8 inches. Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches. Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches. Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic. Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across eastern North Carolina early this morning, and from eastern Virginia northeastward into southern New England today. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the southeast coast of the United States and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts of the United States today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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