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Tropical Depression Thirty-One Graphics
2020-11-13 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 15:54:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 16:02:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirty-One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-11-13 16:09:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 131509 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTY-ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 11(28) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) 9(49) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 7(28) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 5(16) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 15(42) 2(44) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 1(21) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20(26) 6(32) X(32) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Thirty-One Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-11-13 16:05:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 131504 CCA TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Thirty-One Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Corrected the time from EDT to EST Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea has increased and become more concentrated since yesterday. One-minute GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation has also become better defined, with a westerly component seen in the low-cloud motion near the southwestern edge of the primary convective mass. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are T2.0, indicating that the convection has become sufficiently organized for the system to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, in line with the Dvorak classifications. Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification over the next few days. Given the current broad and sprawling structure of the system, strengthening may begin as gradual today, but once an inner core organizes, steady-to-rapid strengthening appears likely. While the SHIPS rapid intensification index does not show very high chances of rapid strengthening for any one 24-h period over the next few days, it does indicate a 50/50 chance (nearly 10 times the climatological mean) of a 65-kt increase in wind speed over the next 72 hours. As a result, the NHC forecast calls for significant strengthening during the 24 to 72 hour time period, and the system could approach the coast of Central America as a major hurricane in a few days. The NHC track forecast at days 4 and 5 shows the system weakening over land, however some of the track guidance keeps the system just off the coast on Honduras at that time. If a more northern track occurs, the system could be stronger at 96 and 120 h if it remains over water. The depression is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that lies over Florida and the western Atlantic should steer the cyclone west-southwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to begin sliding eastward, and a westward to west-northwestward motion should begin. On the foreast track, the cyclone is expected to approach the coast of Central America in 60-72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement through the first couple of days, but there is increasing cross-track spread after that time. The HMON, HWRF, and GFS show a track near or north of the coast of Honduras after 72 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET are farther south. For now, the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the TCVA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen to a hurricane while it approaches the coast of Central America, and there is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Thirty-One may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 14.2N 74.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 13.8N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 13.9N 77.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 14.1N 79.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 14.5N 80.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 14.9N 82.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 15.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1200Z 14.7N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirty-One (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-13 16:04:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH CENTRAL AMERICA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 13 the center of Thirty-One was located near 14.2, -74.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirty-One Public Advisory Number 1
2020-11-13 16:04:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 131503 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirty-One Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Corrected the time from EDT to EST ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND APPROACH CENTRAL AMERICA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 74.3W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch may be required for a portion of that area tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirty-One was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 74.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Saturday. A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through early Monday. On the forecast track, the system will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Through Wednesday morning, Tropical Depression Thirty-One is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain, with local 12 inch totals, across portions of northern Columbia, Panama and Costa Rica. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with local amounts up to 6 inches. Across remaining sections of Central America, the system has the potential to produce 20 to 30 inches of rain with a focus across northern Nicaragua and Honduras. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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