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Home › harvey

 

Tag: harvey

Hurricane Harvey Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-08-25 05:29:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 03:29:42 GMT

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Hurricane Harvey Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-08-25 04:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 02:44:28 GMT

Tags: map storm harvey hurricane

Hurricane Harvey Graphics

2017-08-25 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 02:40:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 25 Aug 2017 03:23:57 GMT

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Hurricane Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 19

2017-08-25 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 250235 TCDAT4 Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Harvey's rapid intensification seems to have slowed for the moment, as an eye seen earlier in satellite imagery has lost definition during the past few hours. In addition, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that 700-mb flight level winds are in the 75-80 kt range, with reliable surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer remaining near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the central pressure has slowly fallen to 973 mb inside the 16 n mi wide eye. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt, and this could be a little conservative. Harvey has turned a little to the left since the last advisory with the initial motion now 315/9. A mid-level anticyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Harvey generally northwestward with a decreasing forward speed for the next 36-48 h, with the center now forecast to make landfall on the middle Texas coast in about 36 h. This part of the new forecast track has been nudged a little to the left based mainly on the initial position and motion. After landfall, the cyclone is likely to get stuck between the Gulf anticyclone and a stronger anticyclone over the western United States, with little motion likely from 48-96 h. A slow eastward motion appears likely by 120 h due to the influence of a trough in the westerlies digging into the eastern United States. There is some spread in the guidance at that time, with the GFS showing Harvey drifting slowly eastward and the ECMWF showing a faster motion. The new forecast track splits this difference of 5-day forecasts and lies near the consensus models. It is unclear why the intensification has slowed, although it is possibly due to some dry air seen earlier wrapping around the north side of the core convection. Otherwise, Harvey remains in an favorable environment for further strengthening with low vertical shear and high oceanic heat content. The intensity forecast will use the scenario that rapid intensification will resume tonight, with Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall in Texas. After landfall, the intensity forecast is based on the scenario that Harvey will weaken over land, but it will remain close enough to the coast so that the weakening will be slower than normal. Thus, the forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm from 72-120 h. It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday. 2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. 3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 25.2N 94.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 26.1N 95.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 27.2N 96.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 28.1N 97.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/0000Z 28.6N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 28/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 29/0000Z 28.5N 97.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 30/0000Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2017-08-25 04:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 250235 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 12(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 13(23) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 15(29) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 10(25) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 13(33) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 9(20) 15(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 12(26) 20(46) 12(58) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 5(17) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) 8(23) 11(34) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 10(21) 14(35) 12(47) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 12(25) 16(41) 13(54) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 10(19) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 10(22) 11(33) 9(42) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 12(32) 14(46) 8(54) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) 13(32) 17(49) 9(58) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 10(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 1 11(12) 26(38) 9(47) 17(64) 12(76) 5(81) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 13(32) 10(42) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 8(22) HOUSTON TX 34 1 6( 7) 35(42) 12(54) 15(69) 9(78) 3(81) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 9(27) 5(32) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) AUSTIN TX 34 1 2( 3) 29(32) 19(51) 12(63) 5(68) 1(69) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) AUSTIN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) 43(47) 15(62) 9(71) 3(74) X(74) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) 7(27) 1(28) 1(29) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 35(37) 31(68) 6(74) 11(85) 5(90) 1(91) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 14(34) 15(49) 7(56) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 11(26) 5(31) GFMX 280N 950W 34 9 62(71) 7(78) 2(80) 8(88) 5(93) 1(94) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 16(35) 20(55) 8(63) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) 15(31) 10(41) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 9(30) 16(46) 16(62) 8(70) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 11(21) 10(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 66(68) 22(90) 2(92) 3(95) 2(97) X(97) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 7( 7) 33(40) 7(47) 15(62) 11(73) 3(76) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) 10(31) 11(42) 3(45) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 25(25) 44(69) 4(73) 10(83) 4(87) 1(88) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 4( 4) 38(42) 5(47) 10(57) 8(65) 1(66) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 87(89) 10(99) X(99) X(99) 1(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 43(43) 45(88) 3(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) ROCKPORT TX 64 X 13(13) 55(68) 7(75) 4(79) 1(80) 1(81) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 81(83) 14(97) 1(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 32(32) 46(78) 5(83) 1(84) 2(86) 1(87) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 8( 8) 44(52) 6(58) 2(60) 3(63) 1(64) GFMX 270N 960W 34 85 15(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 50 15 80(95) 1(96) X(96) 2(98) 1(99) X(99) GFMX 270N 960W 64 2 77(79) 2(81) X(81) 5(86) 3(89) 1(90) MCALLEN TX 34 2 15(17) 14(31) 6(37) 9(46) 17(63) 3(66) MCALLEN TX 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) 9(21) 1(22) MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 40(42) 10(52) 5(57) 6(63) 15(78) 2(80) HARLINGEN TX 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 5(19) 13(32) 3(35) HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 4 37(41) 7(48) 5(53) 6(59) 16(75) 2(77) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 5(17) 13(30) 2(32) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 1(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 27 4(31) 3(34) 3(37) 5(42) 16(58) 3(61) GFMX 250N 960W 50 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 9(17) 2(19) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 9(19) 2(21) TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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