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Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics
2017-08-18 16:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 14:56:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Aug 2017 15:25:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-08-18 16:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181450 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 The structure of Harvey has changed little during the past several hours, and overall the storm is poorly organized. The low-level center is near the eastern edge of the convective mass due to the affects of 15 kt of vertical wind shear. In addition, surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data suggest that the 850-mb center is located west or southwest of the surface center. Based on the aircraft and surface data, the central pressure is near 1005 mb and the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is a quick 270/18. A strong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion for the next 3-4 days, with the system moving from the eastern to the western Caribbean Sea during this time. Late in the forecast period, a more northerly motion is expected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico. The new forecast track remains in the center of the guidance, and only minor changes were made to the previous track. The current shear should persist for the next 48 h or so, and thus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow strengthening during this time. After that, conditions appear favorable for strengthening, with the main uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter. The ECMWF keeps the cyclone a little north of Nicaragua and Honduras and allows more room for development, while the GFS forecasts landfall in northeastern Nicaragua and thus has a weaker intensity. The new NHC forecast is close to the previous one in showing a peak intensity below hurricane strength, but the confidence in this portion of the forecast is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 13.1N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 13.3N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.6N 67.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.0N 71.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 14.3N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 15.0N 82.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 16.5N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 18.5N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2017-08-18 16:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 181449 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC FRI AUG 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 3(36) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 15(28) X(28) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT VINCENT 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)
2017-08-18 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.1, -61.3 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 5
2017-08-18 16:49:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 181449 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017 ...HARVEY MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 61.3W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF ST. VINCENT ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica Interests elsewhere in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Harvey. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 61.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move through the Windward Islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea today and move into the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Fort-de-France, Martinique, recently reported a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h), while Hewanorra International Airport on St. Lucia recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area today. RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts across parts of the Leeward and Windward Islands from Guadeloupe southward to Grenada. These additional rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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