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Tropical Depression Harvey Public Advisory Number 12
2017-08-23 16:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231448 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of San Luis Pass to High Island. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system for possible watches this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a track toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 12
2017-08-23 16:48:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 231448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT MANSFIELD AND FROM NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO SAN LUIS PASS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA DE CATAN MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * NORTH OF SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILILTY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 92.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 29.8N 96.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.0N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 92.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Remnants of Harvey Graphics
2017-08-20 04:37:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 02:37:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Aug 2017 03:24:08 GMT
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Remnants of Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-08-20 04:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200233 TCDAT4 Remnants Of Harvey Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey earlier this evening and was unable to close off a center of circulation. The plane found a well-defined wind shift across the wave axis, and winds decreased as the plane flew south along the axis toward a pressure minimum south of 14N. Harvey has therefore degenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory. Maximum surface winds, as measured by the plane, remain 30 kt. As a side note, the associated deep convection has continued to lose organization and is now oriented linearly from northeast to southwest along the wave axis. Harvey's remnants are moving quickly westward with a motion of 275/19 kt. A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the wave moves along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf of Mexico could cause the system to turn northwestward and slow down as it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche in 3-5 days. The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, deserve a lot of credit for showing Harvey dissipating, or at least not strengthening, over the Caribbean Sea. Even though the vertical shear that has been plaguing the system is expected to diminish in 24-48 hours, the system's fast motion and ambient dry air will likely keep Harvey's remnants from regenerating into a tropical cyclone in the near term. For that reason, the solutions shown by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET appear most reasonable, keeping the system as an open wave, or possibly regenerating to a tropical depression before it reaches Belize and the Yucatan coast. Regeneration is also possible if the remnants emerge over the Bay of Campeche. The remnants of Harvey will be monitored for signs of regeneration and for the possibility of bringing tropical storm conditions to Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. If necessary, advisories could be resumed and tropical storm watches or warnings issued before Harvey regains tropical cyclone status. Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for this system's potential to regenerate into a tropical cyclone, beginning with the 2 AM issuance on Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.3N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS OF HARVEY 12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Remnants of Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-08-20 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 200232 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SUN AUG 20 2017 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF HARVEY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS ...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG
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