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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 48
2021-10-04 16:42:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...SAM MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.6N 45.7W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 42.6 North, longitude 45.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected through tonight. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic tonight or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, portions of the Bahamas, and southeastern Newfoundland for the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 48
2021-10-04 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT.......220NE 240SE 240SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 390SE 580SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 45.7W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.5N 41.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 180SE 180SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.3N 38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.4N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 54.3N 27.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 58.3N 24.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 240SE 210SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 61.0N 29.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 60.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.6N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Sam Graphics
2021-10-04 10:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 08:49:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 08:49:46 GMT
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 47
2021-10-04 10:42:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 A 0255Z GPM microwave pass indicated that Sam had continued to go through an eyewall replacement cycle, consisting of a 20-nmi-wide inner eye and an 85-nmi-wide outer eye. The inner eye was rapidly eroding on the northwest side compared to microwave data from just a few hours earlier. Additionally, late-arriving ASCAT surface wind data from 0000-0100Z indicated that the inner-core wind field had contracted or weakened, while the outer wind field (34-kt radii) had continued to expand in all quadrants. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased to around 80 kt. However, the advisory intensity has been maintained at 90 kt based on the 10-kt increase in forward speed, which should offset any weakening of the tangential winds. Gradual weakening is expected now that Sam has passed north of the warm Gulf Stream and is moving over sub-25-deg-C sea-surface temperatures (SST), with much colder SSTs lying ahead of the hurricane. Vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 18 h, which should cause further weakening. By 24 h and beyond, interaction with a strong upper-level trough/low should cause Sam to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone by early Tuesday to the east of Newfoundland. This baroclinic interaction is expected to cause extratropical-Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. Slow weakening is forecast thereafter as the very large cyclone slowly spins down as an occluded low pressure system. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. Sam has continued to accelerate and is now moving at 045/26 kt. A northeastward motion along with continued acceleration is forecast through today as Sam moves into stronger southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The large cyclone is expected to remain the primary surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days. A gradual turn toward the north and northwest is expected on days 4 and 5 when extratropical-Sam moves around another high-latitude trough. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus track models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 40.8N 48.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 43.7N 45.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 47.8N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 05/1800Z 50.1N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0600Z 51.0N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1800Z 52.8N 31.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0600Z 56.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 60.6N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 61.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47
2021-10-04 10:42:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 040842 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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