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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 44
2021-10-03 16:47:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 031447 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam's cloud pattern remains quite symmetric for a hurricane moving into the higher latitudes. The eye has become more apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery over the past few hours. A very timely 1155 UTC GMI microwave image also reveals a well-defined inner eye that was surrounded by an outer ring of convection at a much larger radius. A blend of the T- and CI-numbers from the lastest subjective Dvorak classifications yields an initial intensity of 85 kt, this is also supported by earlier UW/CIMSS SATCON estimates. The vertical shear over Sam is expected to remain low for the next 6-12 hours and only gradual weakening is anticipated while the system moves over gradually decreasing SSTs. Later tonight, Sam is expected to move over much cooler waters north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear, which should result in continued weakening. However, a strong mid-tropospheric trough approaching Sam from the west on Monday is expected to result in a fairly quick transition of Sam to a large and powerful extratropical low. The low is forecast to gradually weaken over the far north Atlantic during the middle to latter portions of the week as the baroclinic forcing decreases. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the various intensity aids during the early portion of the period, but leans toward the global model guidance during the post-tropical phase. Sam is moving northeastward or 050/14 kt. The cyclone should continue to move northeastward in the flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic and mid-latitude trough over Atlantic Canada. As this trough approaches Sam from the west, a much faster northeastward motion is expected by Monday and Monday night. Around midweek, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down as it rotates around a large cut-off low over the north Atlantic. After that time, the low is forecast to resume a northeastward motion before it slows once again to the southwest of Iceland. Given the future complex interactions of the post-tropical low with the cut-off low and trough over the north Atlantic, the track guidance is in surprisingly good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS global models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 37.7N 54.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 39.3N 51.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 42.4N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 47.0N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/1200Z 50.9N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/0000Z 50.9N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/1200Z 51.5N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/1200Z 59.2N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 60.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 44
2021-10-03 16:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 031446 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-10-03 16:46:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 3 the center of Sam was located near 37.7, -54.6 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 44
2021-10-03 16:46:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031446 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...SAM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 54.6W ABOUT 625 MI...1010 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 54.6 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. The cyclone is forecast to slow down over the north Atlantic around midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Sam is expected to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 44
2021-10-03 16:46:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 031445 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 54.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 180SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..280NE 330SE 360SW 320NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 54.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 55.4W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.3N 51.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.4N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.0N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.9N 39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 360SE 420SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 50.9N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 400SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 51.5N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 330SW 240NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.2N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 60.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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