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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 42
2021-10-03 04:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030237 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 57.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 210SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 290SE 340SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 57.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.7N 55.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.7N 51.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 190SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 42.7N 47.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 47.3N 41.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 40NW. 34 KT...210NE 240SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.8N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 330SE 380SW 290NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 51.7N 37.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 120SE 110SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 480SE 480SW 320NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 54.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 60.5N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.4N 57.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 41
2021-10-02 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 022037 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 The hurricane is gradually losing strength. Satellite images show that the eye has become more cloud filled, with Sam's ring of deep convection becoming less intense and two main towers in the southeast and northwest quadrants. Still, the tropical cyclone is quite a sight even on full-disk images with a large distinctive cloud pattern. The latest intensity estimates have decreased, so the initial wind speed is set to 110 kt, with higher uncertainty than average in this figure due to recent recon/satellite differences. Sam wisely has avoided much shear during its 10-day journey across the Atlantic, and it could remain a major hurricane for another day or so. However, in 36 hours or so, the system should move north of the Gulf Stream, which would normally cause a dramatic weakening. But in this case, a favorable mid-latitude trough interaction should cause Sam to transition into a large and powerful extratropical low by 60 hours. After that, it loses its baroclinic forcing and should gradually spin down over the far North Atlantic southwest of Iceland. Guidance is in fairly solid agreement on this scenario, and the new intensity forecast is mostly just an update of the previous one, remaining close to the consensus. The system continues moving northeastward at about 15 kt. Sam should move faster to the northeast by Monday as it encounters stronger wind flow between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. The track will weave leftward a bit at longer ranges due to the upper trough pulling the extratropical system north-northeastward at times, and eventually another trough has a similar tug by day 5. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast with guidance in close agreement. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 35.4N 58.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 36.8N 56.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 38.6N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 40.8N 49.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 44.7N 44.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 49.3N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 05/1800Z 51.6N 38.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1800Z 53.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1800Z 60.0N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Sam (AT3/AL182021)
2021-10-02 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SAM GRADUALLY LOSING STRENGTH BUT GROWING IN SIZE... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 2 the center of Sam was located near 35.4, -58.2 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 41
2021-10-02 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 022036 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...SAM GRADUALLY LOSING STRENGTH BUT GROWING IN SIZE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.4N 58.2W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 35.4 North, longitude 58.2 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will move well southeast of Newfoundland over the North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days, and Sam could transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2021-10-02 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 022036 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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