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Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031430 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 40.2W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 40.2W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 40.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 40.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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jerry
tropical
Tropical Depression JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2013-10-03 16:31:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 031430 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 17 19 19 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 49 45 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 33 35 38 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 3 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Depression JERRY Graphics
2013-10-03 11:08:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 08:37:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 09:04:48 GMT
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jerry
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-10-03 10:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030842 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF... PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES STILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08. JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 30.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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jerry
tropical
Tropical Depression JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2013-10-03 10:36:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 030836 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 17 19 19 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 49 45 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 33 35 38 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 3 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 3 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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