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Tropical Storm JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2013-10-02 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 020241 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 4 8 11 12 12 20 TROP DEPRESSION 31 34 32 32 30 31 35 TROPICAL STORM 67 60 56 51 52 52 42 HURRICANE 1 3 4 6 6 6 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 5 5 5 2 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm JERRY (AT1/AL112013)

2013-10-02 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...JERRY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of JERRY was located near 28.1, -43.7 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm JERRY Public Advisory Number 13

2013-10-02 04:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 020241 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 ...JERRY WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 43.7W ABOUT 1290 MI...2075 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1180 MI...1900 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST. JERRY HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H...THIS EVENING. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 13

2013-10-02 04:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 020240 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.7W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.7W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 43.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.5N 43.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.6N 42.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.8N 40.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 34.0N 34.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 29.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 43.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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