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Tropical Depression JERRY Public Advisory Number 17
2013-10-03 04:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 ...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 42.0W ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression JERRY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-10-03 04:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 030240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 8 11 14 15 16 NA TROP DEPRESSION 61 46 41 38 36 35 NA TROPICAL STORM 38 45 45 44 46 45 NA HURRICANE X 1 2 4 4 4 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 3 4 4 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) X(20) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Tropical Depression JERRY Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-10-03 04:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030239 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 42.0W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 42.0W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.6N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 35.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.4N 33.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.0N 29.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 38.5N 25.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm JERRY Graphics
2013-10-02 23:08:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2013 20:34:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2013 21:04:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-10-02 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022033 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 29.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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