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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-10-03 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 839 FOPZ11 KNHC 032044 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 120W 34 55 44(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 3 88(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 15N 120W 64 1 72(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 54(68) 10(78) 2(80) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 12(40) 1(41) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) 2(16) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 20(42) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-10-03 22:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 479 WTPZ21 KNHC 032042 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 210SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 117.9W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 117.6W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/PENNY
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-03 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 14:33:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 15:34:14 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-03 16:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 262 WTPZ41 KNHC 031432 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better defined while embedded in very cold cloud tops. The upper-level outflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong over the southern part of the circulation. Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity estimate is 110 kt. Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly 29 deg C, with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for the next day or so. Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast in the short term. In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and some entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. The NHC forecast is at the high end of the intensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane throughout the entire forecast period. The hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at about 305/9 kt. This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in the mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern California. As the trough moves away from the area, the global models predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in a couple of days. This should result in a turn toward the west-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond. The official track forecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-10-03 16:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 475 FOPZ11 KNHC 031431 PWSEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 120W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 8 87(95) 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 120W 50 1 68(69) 25(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 120W 64 X 31(31) 45(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 43(51) 16(67) 2(69) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 1(30) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 8(20) 2(22) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 25(40) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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