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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-03 16:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 3 the center of Sergio was located near 12.9, -117.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 17
2018-10-03 16:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 068 WTPZ31 KNHC 031431 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 ...SERGIO STRENGTHENS SOME MORE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 117.3W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 117.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with weakening expected to begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-10-03 16:30:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 856 WTPZ21 KNHC 031430 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC WED OCT 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 117.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 117.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 117.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-03 10:49:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 08:49:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 09:34:24 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-10-03 10:47:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 577 WTPZ41 KNHC 030847 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 There has been little change to the overall organization of the hurricane overnight. Recent microwave data continue to show that the eyewall is open to the northwest and that there is some northeast to southwest displacement of the low- and mid-level centers due to northeasterly shear. A blend of the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 100 kt. The global models suggest that the shear currently affecting Sergio will decrease over the next 24 to 36 hours, which should allow for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Sergio to reach peak intensity in about 36 hours, and it is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance. After that time, slightly cooler waters and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are forecast to cause gradual weakening, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the entire forecast period. Sergio is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 10 kt. The western portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is expected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the hurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed. By the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn westward. The track guidance is in good agreement through 48 hours, but there is increasing cross-track spread thereafter. The updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for the first two days, but lies between the more northern GFS solution and the consensus aids thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 12.3N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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