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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-10-04 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 347 WTPZ21 KNHC 040234 TCMEP1 HURRICANE SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC THU OCT 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 118.3W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 118.3W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.6N 119.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 120.4W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.6N 125.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sergio Graphics
2018-10-03 22:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 20:58:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Oct 2018 21:34:13 GMT
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Hurricane Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-10-03 22:45:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 835 WTPZ41 KNHC 032045 TCDEP1 Hurricane Sergio Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 Sergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this afternoon. Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within the eye. However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level clouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory intensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the previous advisory. Sergio should remain in quite favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and additional strengthening is expected through Thursday. By Friday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should initiate gradual weakening. Sergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By Friday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn west-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the hurricane. The official track forecast lies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN. It is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently located a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is expected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-10-03 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO MAINTAINING 125 MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 3 the center of Sergio was located near 13.3, -117.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Sergio Public Advisory Number 18
2018-10-03 22:44:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 899 WTPZ31 KNHC 032044 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018 ...SERGIO MAINTAINING 125 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 117.9W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sergio was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 117.9 West. Sergio is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and west with a decrease in forward speed on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with weakening expected to begin by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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