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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-09-30 04:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Sergio was located near 12.3, -103.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 3
2018-09-30 04:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 687 WTPZ31 KNHC 300238 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...SERGIO GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 103.3W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 103.3 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days with a turn toward the west-northwest possible on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Sergio could become a hurricane by Monday and a major hurricane on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-09-30 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 590 WTPZ21 KNHC 300238 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 103.3W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 103.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-09-29 22:43:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 20:43:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 20:43:53 GMT
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sergio
Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-29 22:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 427 FOPZ11 KNHC 292042 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 105W 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 25(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) CLIPPERTON IS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CLIPPERTON IS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 10N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 23(31) 6(37) 1(38) X(38) 10N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 10N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21) 1(22) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 33(65) 2(67) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 1(35) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 22(45) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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