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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-10-01 16:33:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 445 FOPZ11 KNHC 011433 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 10N 110W 34 32 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 14(20) 3(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) 10N 115W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 18(35) 7(42) 1(43) 1(44) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 58(64) 15(79) X(79) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 14(45) 1(46) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 1(28) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 7(26) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 12(23) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-10-01 16:32:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 218 WTPZ21 KNHC 011432 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 1500 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 109.5W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 108.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Sergio Graphics
2018-10-01 10:56:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 08:56:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Oct 2018 08:56:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-10-01 10:54:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 428 WTPZ41 KNHC 010854 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Sergio's convective pattern in infrared satellite imagery has waxed and waned since the previous advisory. A previously large, solid curved band has become broken during the past couple of hours, but the comma head or CDO of the cloud band has increased in size while cloud tops have cooled to near -80C. Passive microwave imagery indicates that within the comma head feature an 18-20-nmi-wide closed eye has developed in the low-levels, while the mid- and upper-level eye remains open and ragged. Subjective intensity estimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, based on the well-defined, low-level eye, the intensity has been nudged upward to 60 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is now 270/12 kt, based primarily on microwave satellite fix positions. Sergio is forecast to move generally westward for the next 36 hours or so, under the influence of a strong, deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S. is expected to gradually erode the western part of the ridge, allowing Sergio turn west-northwestward on day 2 and move northwestward on days 3-5. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near a blend of the consensus models TCVA, TVCE, and HCCA. Both the statistical and dynamical intensity models have been too bullish on Sergio strengthening during the past 36 hours. Although the environment is quite moist with near 80 percent mid-level humidity values, a pronounced dry intrusion eroding the inner-core convection remains. By the time the dry air mixes out, modest northerly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder development in the 24-48 hour period. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt, but Sergio will be moving over cooler waters at that time. Given the mixed environmental signals, the official intensity is on the conservative side and remains well below the stronger HCCA and FSSE models, and closer to the simple consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 11.5N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Sergio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-10-01 10:54:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 391 FOPZ11 KNHC 010854 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 0900 UTC MON OCT 01 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 70 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 10N 110W 34 34 13(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 110W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 10N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 19(24) 6(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) 10N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 21(31) 11(42) 2(44) X(44) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 20(73) 2(75) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 20(39) 1(40) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 1(26) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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