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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-09-29 22:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 388 WTPZ41 KNHC 292042 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Recent scatterometer data confirms that Sergio is at tropical storm strength, but with a slightly unexpected twist - the maximum winds are in a band about 110 n mi east of the center and there is no inner wind core at this time. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the scatterometer data. Sergio currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions, but there is some evidence that northerly upper-level winds below the level of the outflow are causing some light shear. Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. The environment is favorable enough for rapid intensification, although the current storm structure does not appear favorable for quick strengthening. The intensity forecast calls for gradual intensification during the first 24-36 h, with a faster rate from 36-72 h as the cyclone becomes better organized. Near the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing northeasterly shear which could limit intensification, and this is reflected in the forecast. The intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and just above the intensity consensus, and the forecast may need to be adjusted upward in subsequent advisories. The wind radii forecast have been adjusted based on the current structure and the latest radii guidance. The initial motion is now 275/10. Sergio should be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn toward the northwest. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is similar to, but a little south of, the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 12.1N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-29 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 183 WTPZ21 KNHC 292041 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM SERGIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 102.8W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 102.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sergio (EP1/EP212018)
2018-09-29 22:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Sergio was located near 12.1, -102.8 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-29 22:41:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 129 WTPZ31 KNHC 292041 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.1N 102.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 102.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Sergio could become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-29 17:35:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 354 WTPZ41 KNHC 291535 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low pressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become better organized, with the low-level center embedded under the convective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the southeastern semicircle. Based on this and continuity from earlier scatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Sergio with 35 kt winds. Sergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear and high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near the end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing northeasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity forecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady strengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48 h. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11. Sergio should be steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the subtropical ridge over Mexico. After that time, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn toward the northwest. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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