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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-28 01:28:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 272327 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A rather large area of disturbed weather extends from Central America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure is trying to form south-southeast of Acapulco in association with this disturbance, but there is no evidence of a well defined center at this time. Environmental conditions are very favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within this area of disturbed weather during the next day or so, while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph near the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time on Saturday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-27 19:29:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 271729 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A low pressure system appears to be forming a few hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is not well organized, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing very little shower activity. The low is expected to be absorbed by the larger weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico during the next day or so, and therefore development is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low... near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-27 13:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 271133 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small but well-defined low pressure system located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing limited shower activity. Although some slight development of the low is still possible today, it is expected to become absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico during the next couple of days, and the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with an elongated surface trough. A low pressure system is forecast to develop along this trough during the next day or two, and it is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm this weekend or early next week while moving west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the Pacific coasts of Guatemala and Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-27 07:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 270535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small but well-defined low pressure system is located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The low is currently producing no thunderstorms and environmental conditions have become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Some slight development is still possible later today if thunderstorm activity increases while the system moves quickly southeastward, however the low is expected to dissipate over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is located near the Pacific coasts of southern Mexico and Central America. This disturbance is expected to move westward and will interact with an elongated trough of low pressure just south of the coast of Mexico during the next day or two. A tropical depression or tropical storm is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early next week near the southern or southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, the system is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward along the coast of Mexico and will likely produce heavy rainfall with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rainfall is also possible along the Pacific coast of Central America through today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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weather
pacific
eastern
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-27 01:12:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 262312 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity is a little better organized than earlier today in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Although upper level winds are expected to become less conducive for development later tonight, a tropical depression could still form by Friday night before it becomes absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the coast of Mexico over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An elongated trough of low pressure near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A low is expected to form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend in the far southwestern part of the east Pacific basin. Some subsequent slow development is possible into early next week as the low moves slowly eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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