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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-28 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.1W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 50.0W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.7N 50.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.1N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.7N 49.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 28.6N 51.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 11A
2021-08-28 13:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281151 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF JALISCO MEXICO LATER TODAY... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 105.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 105.4 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slight bend to the northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is anticipated as long as Nora remains offshore the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today and may spread to the northern portions of the watch area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today and tomorrow. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest through the Gulf of California. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center passes the coast, or east of the center if Nora makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 8A
2021-08-28 13:50:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 85.7W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. Gusty winds are possible over portions of western Cuba and the Florida Keys this morning. RAINFALL: Ida will bring an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across western Cuba today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. As Ida moves into the Louisiana coast late Sunday, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in significant flash and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Sunday through early Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through today. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast later today and continue through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 8
2021-08-28 11:10:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 280909 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Corrected Storm Surge Hazard Section ...IDA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 85.2W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday. A slower northward motion is forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sunday or early Monday, then move through portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...2-4 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. Gusty winds are possible over portions of western Cuba and the Florida Keys this morning. RAINFALL: Ida will continue to lift north of Cuba this morning bringing an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across western Cuba through today. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. As Ida moves into the Louisiana coast late Sunday, total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in significant flash and riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn northeast as it moves inland later Monday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible from northeastern Louisiana and central Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley. This is likely to result in considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible Sunday through early Monday across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells generated by Ida will continue to affect western Cuba through Saturday morning. Swells will begin reaching portions of the northern Gulf coast Saturday night or early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-28 10:59:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280859 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 105.2W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico. The government of Mexico has also issued a Hurricane Watch from north of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo northward to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South of Manzanillo Mexico to Lazaro Cardenas * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo Mexico * North of San Blas to Mazatlan Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12-24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere further along the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico and southern portions of Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 105.2 West. Nora is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A slight bend to the northwest is forecast by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Nora is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico later today and pass very near the coast of the states of Jalisco and Nayarit by tonight. Nora is then forecast to approach and move into the Gulf of California on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, making Nora a Category 1 Hurricane. Additional short-term intensification is anticipated as long as Nora remains offshore the coast of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area later today and may spread tot he norther portions of the watch area tomorrow. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over southern portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread to the northern portions of the warning area later today and tomorrow. RAINFALL: Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. As Nora continues north-northwest, heavy rainfall will move into the Baja California Sur late Sunday into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are forecast, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur as a result. Additional heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible across Sinaloa and Sonora during the middle to latter part of next week as Nora moves northwest through the Gulf of California. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. into the central Great Basin and central Rockies. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California over the weekend and into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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