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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-29 10:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 290856 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 48.6W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.8N 45.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.5N 41.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 70SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 41.8N 37.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 45.9N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 50.0N 36.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-29 10:55:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290855 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 946 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 88.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA COAST MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 89.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290854 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 ...DEPRESSION BATTLING STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS... ...COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 49.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next 24 hours. Little change in strength is expected thereafter through early this week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-08-29 10:53:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290852 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 49.8W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 49.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.4N 49.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N 49.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.7N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.0N 48.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-29 10:51:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 105.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 105.9 West. Nora is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is likely today, followed by a slower northwestward motion tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slight weakening is forecast during the day or two if Nora's center stays over water. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely in portions of the Hurricane Warning area today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely in the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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