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Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2021-08-26 16:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 261445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands * Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in central and western Cuba, in the northern Yucatan Peninsula, and along the northern U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 79.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass near of over the Cayman Islands tonight, the Isle of Youth and Western Cuba Friday, and move over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba or over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Additional strengthening is likely over the Gulf of Mexico and the system could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow along the immediate coast of the Isle of Youth and near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast of western Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands tonight, and are expected to reach the Isle of Youth and portions of western Cuba in the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with maximum totals of 15 inches across Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are expected across the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and the northeast portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall from this system is likely to begin impacting portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast by early Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by this system will begin affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba tonight and Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-26 16:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261444 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 100.6W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a motion toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-26 04:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 191 WTPZ34 KNHC 260242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 ...DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE THIS EVENING... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 100.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a portion of the coast on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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