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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 32
2021-08-18 04:48:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 19
2021-08-18 04:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 180248 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 79.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Dzilam. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the north and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of Dzilam to Campeche. The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban province of Santiago de Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Dzilam * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud * North and west coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula from west of Dzilam to Campeche A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 79.2 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move away from the western coast of Jamaica overnight. Grace is forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands early Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of Jamaica for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area through tonight, and over the Cayman Islands beginning by early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Wednesday evening. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and across Jamaica, mudslides will also be possible. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-08-18 04:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 180248 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC WED AUG 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO DZILAM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CANCUN TO PUNTA HERRERO... INCLUDING COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JAMAICA * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GRANMA...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY * CAYMAN ISLANDS * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO DZILAM * YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AS WELL AS ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD * NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GRACE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 79.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 78.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.9N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 19.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 20.0N 87.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 95.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 100.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 18/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 34
2021-08-18 04:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 18A
2021-08-18 01:43:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 172343 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND THE CENTER OF GRACE JUST WEST OF JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 78.6W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cancun to Punta Herrero, including Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from north of Cancun to Cabo Catoche * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from south of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located just west of the western tip of Jamaica near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 78.6 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move away from the western coast of Jamaica this evening. Grace is forecast to move near or over the Cayman Islands late tonight and early Wednesday, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Grace is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday, with some additional strengthening possible prior to the center reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at Kingston, Jamaica. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over portions of Jamaica through early tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area through early tonight, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight and into early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions beginning as early as Wednesday evening. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti...an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba...and additional 2 to 4 inches of rain. Additional heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides. Over Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels as high as 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels in portions of the Cayman Islands. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3-5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will spread westward from Jamaica to the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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